Season 19 AL Predictions

AL NORTH

Montreal

Key Additions: None

Key Subtractions: Slick Rolls

Summary: Montreal continues to go through a slow rebuild. You have to admire a team that has dominated its division like Montreal has (9 straight division titles) and is still finding ways to re-stock its’ farm system. There is always the potential for some mid-season trades to occur (assuming Griffey spends more than 30 seconds on the site in one sitting) that will further show the fact that Montreal is in rebuild mode. Is there enough in the tank for a 10^th straight title?

Prediction: 82-80

Detroit

Key Additions: Nigel Nicholas, Danny Darwin

Key Subtractions: None

Summary: Detroit did more good than bad in this off-season, but it’s going to take a lot for a team to recover from being near the bottom in the AL in hitting, pitching, and fielding. Nicholas and Darwin should provide some much needed help defensively. The good news is that Montreal is not the team that it once was, and there is some room for a new team at the top. Is Detroit that team… we will see!

Prediction: 74-78

Burlington

Key Additions: Preston Brantley (minors), Nick Varitek

Key Subtractions: Frank Denham, Lenny Fassero (sentimental reasons only)

Summary: Burlington made a couple of moves including the release of one of the all-time greats Lenny Fassero. His18-year career in Burlington has finally come to an end. Other than that, Burlington made one move for the future acquiring Preston Brantley, a talented young SS, and one move for the now by replacing Fassero with Nick Varitek. Burlington probably didn’t do enough to challenge for the division this year, but the future looks bright with Fernando Polanco and Preston Brantley up the middle.

Prediction: 75-77

Wichita

Key Additions: Kevin Burns

Key Subtractions: Oswald Ortiz, Matthew Serrano

Summary: Wichita made 2 trades that really didn’t do much for the team. Additionally, there were some small FA signings, including John Whitehead and Trever King, that proved lackluster. While this team isn’t prepared to compete for a division crown this year, Andrew understands that this is a marathon and not a sprint. I think that this Wichita franchise is in much better shape than it has been in the past, and I see a bright future.

Prediction: 64-98

AL EAST

Hartford

Key Additions: Leon Ramsey

Key Subtractions: None

Summary: Hartford is still the team to beat in the AL East. Like Montreal, Hartford has dominated this division as of late, winning 7 straight titles. Not sure I see much different in Season 19 with Hartford taking control of the AL East for an 8^th straight time.

Prediction: 98-64

Augusta

Key Additions: None

Key Subtractions:  Gerald Grim, Scott Sauer, Christopher Malone

Summary: Augusta released a couple of players in what I guess is an attempt to clear salary. The cupboard is a little bare at the ML level; however, you can never underestimate the power of a rebuild. I’m not sure much changes for Augusta, except for a higher number in the loss column.

Prediction: 67-95

Indianapolis

Key Additions: Ralph Wells, Chuck Ankiel

Key Subtractions: Saul Bonilla

Summary: Indianapolis should experience the biggest change in W/L’s from last season to this season. They have legitimized their bullpen by adding the star RP of the FA class in Ralph Wells. They also added depth with Chuck Ankiel. The rest of the roster has remained in tact, except for the young stud Saul Bonilla. His bat will definitely be missed, but Indy did receive some defensive help with Donne Bay and Russell Hamlin. All in all, I expect big things out of Indy this year… enough to overtake Hartford, we’ll see!

Prediction: 84-78

Trenton

Key Additions: Vic Wallace (promotion)

Key Subtractions: None

Summary: Trenton is still looking to add ML talent to its roster and really did so with the promotion of Vic Wallace. Vic is a serious talent and should boost a lineup that had issues swinging the stick. Hopefully, this will be enough to put fans in the seats because there is not much else to look at in Trenton. Should be another tough season.

Prediction: 64-94

AL SOUTH

Jacksonville

Key Additions: Elmer Barker, Jose Reynoso,

Key Subtractions: Howard Cox

Summary: Jacksonville won the second best division in all of baseball last year but fizzled out in the playoffs. They suffered a key loss in the rotation but subsequently replaced Howard Cox with an upgrade of Elmer Barker. The addition of Jose Reynoso should bolster an already impressive lineup. The Jaguars keep getting older but that doesn’t mean they aren’t getting better.

Prediction: 101-61

Charleston

Key Additions: Benito Franco, Vic Villafuerte, “Over-the-hill combo” (Len McGowan, Louis Williams, and Lawrence Kydd)

Key Subtractions: Chuck Ankiel, Bob Moreno

Summary: Charleston made a huge trade early on sending Bob Moreno to Seattle for Benito Franco. Charleston was without Moreno all of last year and had the 3^rd best ERA in the AL. The addition of Franco to the 4^th best lineup in the AL leaves very few holes for opposing pitchers. Charleston also added Vic Villafuerte to provide some stability at 3B and put another bat in the lineup that can hit LHP. Look for Charleston to push last year’s division winner Jacksonville and World Series champion Richmond to the brink.

Prediction: 103-59

Richmond

Key Additions: Kenneth Whitten, Rex Mintz, Frank Denham, Gabby Sefcik

Key Subtractions: Sam Knotts, Oswaldo Ortiz (minors)

Summary: The first thing that needs to be said is Richmond will be without 3-time Cy Young winner until around the AS Break. That is a huge loss for the defending champs. With that said, Richmond has been busy making moves improving the ML ball club by trading for Whitten, Mintz, Denham, and Sefcik. Veteran Sam Knotts has left but has since been replaced. Richmond should be stronger, but how will they survive the first half of the season without Uribe?

Prediction: 97-65

Durham

Key Additions: None

Key Subtractions: None

Summary: Durham is in the final stages of rebuild mode, and we could see a few of those future stars around the AS Break, but this team is still 2-3 years away from their 3-time WS Champion form of a few years back.

Prediction: 58-104

AL WEST

Salem

Key Additions: Slick Rolls, Steve Hartman (minors)

Key Subtractions: Elston Park, Elmer Baker, Dante Golub, Benito Gongora

Summary: Salem should take a step back this year after losing Park and Baker. Slick Rolls should ease the loss of Dante Golub, but Salem does have enough in their farm system to make a move for starting pitching during this season. Regardless, Salem is still the cream of the crop in the AL West.

Prediction: 106-54 

Portland

Key Additions: Julian Grabowski, Archie Omlansky

Key Subtractions: Ralph Wells

Summary: Portland added some major firepower to their offense with the addition of Grabowski and Omlansky. Losing Wells will hurt but expect Pedro Mateo to step into that role. I think the SP is still a little light, but I expect Portland to push Salem early on.

Prediction: 93-69

Seattle

Key Additions: Bob Moreno

Key Subtractions: Benito Franco

Summary: Seattle’s big move was to sure up their SP which the definitely did by adding Moreno through a trade with Charleston. The issue is that they traded away their best bat in Benito Franco. Getting out of Tacoma will naturally help all hitters for Seattle, but this team will struggle to score runs without Franco.

Prediction: 74-88

Oakland

Key Additions: None

Key Subtractions: Archie Omlansky

Summary: Oakland did a great job of locking up a lot of young talent on their current roster in Jimmie Fonville, Enerio Perez, Richard Lawton, and Timothy Brea. However, the biggest issue for this team was not addressed… starting pitching. Oakland should continue to rebuild over this next year, and I look for them to be a force in the AL West as Salem gets a bit older and they start to acquire SP.

Prediction: 61-101

Season 19 Off-Season

Well... we filled in less than a week (I think). Thanks to all that helped on the classifieds forum keeping the thread higher on the list for more visibility. My hope is that we start cutting the list of available teams from the 8-10 range to the 2-4 range and eventually nobody wants to leave. I'll try and make the league better as a commissioner, and lets all make the league a good one for new owners to High Fives.

Moving on... here is a list of the new owners to High Fives, and a Season 18 wrap up / Season 19 introduction.

New Owners / Movers and Shakers

AL North

Wichita Wookies (andrewp97) - formerly Chicago Holy Soxs
*andrewp97 is new to Hardball Dynasty but takes over a team that has some pieces to build around. Very fortunate to take over now while the Mighty Montreal Royals are rebuilding. When you feel someone sneaking up behind you, it could be Chuck Norris, but it is more than likely Montreal (9 straight division titles) rebuilding to once again take his thrown in the AL North.

AL East

Indianapolis Fire Starters - formerly Pittsburgh Rust Rangers
*cubs_4_life has 44 seasons under his belt in Hardball Dynasty with 11 playoff appearances. He takes over a Pittsburgh team that has had an identity crisis over the past few years. There is enough stuff there for cubs to make a run or to get a head start on a rebuild. Look out for Hartford, 7 straight division titles.

AL South

Richmond Poormen - formerly Atlanta Aliens
*ewd330 takes over the reigning world series champions' franchise. The former owner always talked about going out on top and did just that. Well, as a fellow AL South owner, I had hoped that someone would come in and demolish this franchise but ewd330 comes in with a .635 winning percentage and 21 world series titles in 104 seasons. This division just keeps getting tougher.

AL West

Seattle Pilots - formerly Tacoma Ninja Squirrels
*kwheeler decided that he had enough in Chicago and jumped ship to take over the underperforming Tacoma squad. There is a lot more to work with in this franchise than there was in Chicago, so we'll see how kwheeler reacts to the wild west and Salem.

NL North

Buffalo Dons - formerly Cleveland Mistakes
*matt28 is new to Hardball Dynasty and takes over a franchise that was 1 win away from the playoffs last year. This has traditionally been the weakest division in the High Fives world, but Pawtucket has started to claim this as his division with a first or second place finish in the last 5 years.

Scranton Mifflinites - formerly Toronto Blues
*awyborski is also new to Hardball Dynasty. Although he was the last owner to allow us to roll (THANK YOU!), I actually think he got a great team to start with. I mentioned that Crespo and McNamara are good position players to build around, and I think awyborksi will do just that.

Rochester Bulldogs - formerly Columbus Eagles
*bulldog25174 has 9 seasons under his belt and has made the playoffs 2 times. That's not a bad start to HBD life for bulldog, and I think he may be able to continue this trend in the "traditionally" weak NL North.

NL East

Philadelphia Stars - formerly Baltimore Stars
*ewells54 took over an abandoned franchise last year and Big Ern will get the number one pick this year. He moved the franchise from Baltimore to Philadelphia and plans on turning this puppy around.

San Juan Smugglers
*reefer124 also moved his franchise from New York (and the dreadful previous owner) to San Juan where the air is clear, the sun is shining, and the drugs are flowing freely. This division is up for grabs as this franchise looks to turn back to its dominant ways that lead them to 10+ division titles as Richmond.

Season 18 World Series Preview

6. Atlanta Aliens (99-63) vs. 6. Mexico City Margaritas (92-70)

Game 1: Pritchett (ATL; 17-8, 2.75) vs. Ausmus (MC; 14-10, 3.32)
Game 2: Uribe (ATL; 22-5, 2.22)  vs. Salvador (MC; 15-7, 4.00)
Game 3: Atchley (MC; 13-11, 4.79)  vs. Crosby (9-6, 2.81)

*Prediction: Well, just as predicted both #6 seeds advance to the world series. First, I just want to say that I think Atlanta has the deepest team in the AL along with Salem, so they are not your average #6 seed. Mexico City, all I have to say is I believe I am the sole reason you are in the world series... every time I pick you, you win! Well, that and the fact that you have to be slipping your opponents some of that "Mexican water." Back to baseball, I have to believe that ratings will prevail here and Atlanta will make quick work of Mexico City. I think Atlanta takes this in 4 or 5 games. One last thing... you are welcome Mexico City.

Season 18 League Championship Series Preview

INTERESTING NOTE: ALL 4 TEAMS ARE FROM THE SOUTH DIVISIONS (THE SOUTH WILL RISE AGAIN!)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

5. Charleston Country Boys (101-61) vs. 6. Atlanta Aliens (99-63)

*This matchup features the first wildcard team vs. the second wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the World Series to play the Tampa Bay / Mexico City winner. The two teams split the  season series 5-5. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:

Game 1: Chang (CHR; 20-6, 2.77) vs. Uribe (ATL; 22-5, 2.22)
Game 2: Halladay (CHR; 15-11, 4.16) vs. Pritchett (ATL; 17-8, 2.75)
Game 3: Crosby (9-6, 2.81) vs. Taylor (CHR; 19-10, 3.80)

*Prediction: It doesn't matter how you get to the dance, as long as you're dancing. Atlanta has struggled in 2 previous series while Charleston is 6-0 in the playoffs this year. Based upon expected win % for most of the regular season, Atlanta had the better team. They've got arguably the best SP in our world, and if that isn't enough, I asked my wife this morning and she said Atlanta is going to sweep my team 4-0. She said 2 of the games will be close and 2 of the games will be blowouts. When asked why she felt that we, she responded with "Uribe has struggled so far in the playoffs, and he's too good of a pitcher to let that continue. Plus, the algorithm has to start kicking in at some point." Ok, we all know she didn't talk about the HBD algorithm, but she did predict a sweep for the other guys. If there is one thing I've learned in my marriage, happy wife = happy life. Atlanta sweeps Charleston to represent the AL in the World Series.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Tampa Bay Orange Crush (110-52) vs. 6. Mexico City Margaritas (92-70)

*This matchup features the NL South division champions vs. the second wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the World Series to play the Charleston / Atlanta winner. Tampa Bay won the season series 9-1. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:

Game 1: Washington (TB; 19-8, 2.38) vs. Ausmus (MC; 14-10, 3.32)
Game 2: Mesa (TB; 17-4, 3.24) vs. Salvador (MC; 15-7, 4.00)
Game 3: Atchley (MC; 13-11, 4.79) vs. Arnold (TB; 17-6, 2.89)

*Prediction: Tampa Bay has been as consistent a team the NL has seen since the Richmond team that has since been dismantled. They are ranked 3rd in the NL in hitting and 1st in pitching. Despite not having a true ACE of the staff (at least based on ratings), TB has an amazing 5 SP's with over 16 wins. That type of depth will serve them well in a 7 game series. Mexico City has been like the little engine that could this year. They held off CSP for the final playoff spot. I picked against them vs. Pawtucket and they took care of business. I picked against them vs. Las Vegas, and they proved me wrong. So, behind the sound logic behind your current commissioner, I am going to pick Tampa Bay in 5 games (YOU'RE WELCOME MEXICO CITY!).

Season 18 Division Series Preview

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Salem Silver Bullets (110-52) vs. 5. Charleston Country Boys (101-61)

*This matchup features the AL West division champions vs. the first wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the  League Championship Series to play the Jacksonville / Atlanta winner. Salem won the season series 6-4. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:

Game 1: Park (SAL; 16-10, 3.70) vs. Chang (CHR; 20-6, 2.77)
Game 2: Harris (SAL; 8-12, 4.45) vs. Halladay (CHR; 15-11, 4.16)
Game 3: Taylor (CHR; 19-10, 3.80) vs. Barker (SAL; 13-8, 2.80)

*Prediction: I hate having to predict games involving my own team. This is a rematch from last year when Salem swept the series. However, it wasn't pure domination, Salem won in the final inning in each game. Charleston got some much needed rest by sweeping Montreal in the first round, and will come out firing winning Game 1, but Salem has too much experience and will take the series in 5 games due to poor fielding by the County Boys.

2. Jacksonville Jackers (105-67) vs. 6. Atlanta Aliens (99-63)

*This matchup features the AL South division champions vs. the second wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the League Championship Series to play the Salem / Charleston winner. Jacksonville won the season series 7-3. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:

Game 1: Stokes (JAX; 20-8, 2.25) vs. Uribe (ATL; 22-5, 2.22)
Game 2: Cox (JAX; 15-7, 3.31) vs. Pritchett (ATL; 17-8, 2.75)
Game 3: Jung (ATL; 14-4, 3.03) vs.  Armas (JAX; 12-10, 4.08)

*Prediction: Atlanta has a very good team. Jacksonville also has a very good team. I honestly don't know what gives here. When Atlanta played Hartford, I chose Atlanta b/c I didn't think Hartford could beat Uribe twice. Well, I feel the same way about Dion Stokes. I'll say the wildcard here is the Jacksonville bats (Butler, Parnell, and Nicholson). Jacksonville wins a couple of close games closed out by Emmanuel Lopez, and they win the series 3-1.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Tampa Bay Orange Crush (110-52) vs. 5. Kansas City Mythbusters (104-58)

*This matchup features the NL South division champions vs. the first wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the League Championship series to play the Las Vegas / Mexico City winner. Tampa Bay won the season series 9-1. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:

Game 1: Washington (TB; 19-8, 2.38) vs. Carew (KC; 19-9, 3.38)
Game 2: Mesa (TB; 17-4, 3.24) vs. Riley (KC; 16-5, 3.69)
Game 3: Anderson (KC; 15-9, 4.36) vs. Arnold (TB; 17-6, 2.89)

*Prediction: First, this will be a great battle! I think KC pulls this one out in 5. I honestly don't feel great about this pick, but it boils down to one thing... KC has Sven Owen and Tampa Bay does not. 

2. Las Vegas Lightning (94-68) vs. Mexico City Margaritas (92-70)

*This matchup features the AL West division champions vs. the second wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the League Championship Series to play the Tampa Bay / Kansas City winner. Las Vegas won the season series 6-4. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:

Game 1: Bennett (LV; 18-4, 2.55) vs. Ausmus (MC; 14-10, 3.32)
Game 2: Brush (LV; 14-6, 3.10) vs. Salvador (MC; 15-7, 4.00)
Game 3: Atchley (MC; 13-11, 4.79) vs. Ordonez (LV; 12-7, 2.75)

Prediction: I went against MC in round 1 and got burned. So, this round I'm gonna go with... you guessed it, Las Vegas. On the arms of Brush and Bennett, Vegas win the series 3-1. 

Season 18 Division Play-in Series Preview

AMERICAN LEAGUE

4. Montreal Royals (87-75) vs. 5. Charleston Country Boys (101-61)

*This matchup features the AL North division champions vs. the first wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the division championship series to play Salem. Charleston won the season series 6-4. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:

Game 1: Easley (MON; 16-10, 3.70) vs. Chang (CHR; 20-6, 2.77)
Game 2: Benoit (MON; 8-12, 4.45) vs. Halladay (CHR; 15-11, 4.16)
Game 3: Taylor (CHR; 19-10, 3.80) vs. Franco (MON; 13-8, 2.80)

*Prediction: Charleston wins 3-0. This is not your father's Montreal team. Charleston had the second best record in the AL, and Montreal does not have the firepower to compete.

*Results: Charleston wins the series 3-0. 

3. Hartford Bulldogs (94-68) vs. 6. Atlanta Aliens (99-63)

*This matchup features the AL East division champions vs. the second wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the division championship series to play Jacksonville. Atlanta won the season series 7-3. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:


Game 1: Berg (HAR; 8-5, 2.68) vs. Uribe (ATL; 22-5, 2.22)
Game 2: Neal (HAR; 7-7, 3.56) vs. Pritchett (ATL; 17-8, 2.75)
Game 3: Jung (ATL; 14-4, 3.03) vs. Franco (HAR; 6-8, 4.68)

*Prediction: Atlanta pulls this one out in 5 games. Hartford is really tough at home, but it's tough to think that Hartford can beat Wladimir Uribe twice.

*Results: Atlanta wins the series 3-1.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

4. Huntington Knights (77-85) vs. 5. Kansas City Mythbusters (104-58)

*This matchup features the NL East division champions vs. the first wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the division championship series to play Tampa Bay. Kansas City won the season series 7-3. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:


Game 1: O'Brien (HUN; 8-5, 2.68) vs. Carew (KC; 19-9, 3.38)
Game 2: Valdez (HUN; 7-6, 4.11) vs. Riley (KC; 16-5, 3.69)
Game 3: Anderson (KC; 15-9, 4.36) vs. Navarre (HUN; 8-7, 4.02)

*Prediction: Kansas City sweeps this series with relative ease. Huntington was fortunate to play in the NL East and will have fun being in the postseason but it won't last long.


*Results: Kansas City wins the series 3-0. 

3. Pawtucket Washouts (86-76) vs. Mexico City Margaritas (92-70)

*This matchup features the AL North division champions vs. the second wildcard team. Winner of this series will advance to the division championship series to play Las Vegas. The two teams tied the season series 5-5. Here are the probable match-ups for the first 3 games:


Game 1: Bryant (PAW; 4-7, 4.76) vs. Ausmus (MC; 14-10, 3.32)
Game 2: Franco (PAW; 11-11, 4.26) vs. Salvador (MC; 15-7, 4.00)
Game 3: Atchley (MC; 13-11, 4.79) vs. Owen (PAW; 9-8, 4.30)

Prediction: My brain tells me to go with Mexico City as they won more games than Pawtucket in a tougher division, but a team that gets lucky like Pawtucket to make it into the playoffs had to do so for a reason, right? Pawtucket wins in 5.

*Results: Mexico City wins the series 3-1.

Season 18 Season Wrap Up

Season 18 Wrap Up

Well... Since I only did season predictions for the AL, I'll compare how I did and then offer commentary on how the NL teams finished.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL North
* I was pretty spot on with this division. The most I missed by was Chicago and Detroit by 3 wins. Montreal took the division which was to be expected, but what was more impressive was that he did it while improving his minor league system as much as he did. It was a quasi-rebuild. Chicago, Detroit, and Burlington pretty much performed status quo.

AL East
* I did a pretty good job here but underestimated Hartford's rebound by 10 wins. Augusta also outperformed my projection by 9 wins to take second place. I thought with all the offseason moves Pittsburgh made that they would have a chance to compete, but fell short. Trenton hung around there and has some minor league studs just around the corner.

AL South
* Well, when you go out on a limb, sometimes the limb breaks, and that's what happened here. Jacksonville's massive payroll made the U.S. Government jealous, but it paid off with a division crown, his 6th in 9 years. Charleston and Atlanta made VERY strong pushes but could never get closer than 3 games. Predictions for the AL South were spot on: Atlanta -1, Charleston -1, Jacksonville -8, and Durham dead on.

AL West
* This is the division I missed the worst on. My best prediction came with Oakland with -5. Salem, Tacoma and Portland were complete misses.  Apologies to Salem who claimed home field in the AL and Portland who far exceeded my prediction. And then there's Tacoma... well buddy, I sure tried. I thought your offseason moves would have put you over the top.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

As I mentioned, no predictions here, so instead, I offer some thoughts...

NL North
*Pawtucket and Cleveland battled it out for the division crown, and it came down to the final day. On paper, Cleveland was in the driver seat... won head to head (8-2) and had a better division record; however, none of that matters when you lose and the other guy wins. So, Pawtucket took the division and drew a tough matchup with Mexico City.

NL East
*The NL East was the winner this year for Mr. Irrelevant. Huntington won the division for the first time since Season 1 with a record of 77-85. The rest of the division, shame on you, although not really fault. New York and Baltimore had replacement owners (and both coming back, which is great).

NL South
*As powerful as the AL South (top 3 teams had 305 wins), the NL South was even stronger (top 3 teams had 306 wins). Tampa Bay continues to dominate that division winning 110 games. You wonder if they'll be some turnover in the offseason, but for now, they take home field advantage. Kansas City takes a tough 2nd place but as a consolation prize gets Huntington in Round 1. Finally, Mexico City (like Atlanta in the AL) takes the 6th seed for the playoffs.

NL West
*Las Vegas took down the NL West for the second straight year, but I think the bigger story is that we will be having a playoffs without Colorado Springs. They did a good job of getting rebuilding the farm system while still having a strong ML team. SF and ANA put up a good fight, but it's tough to compete in the wild NL West.